Eight questions

What?

Technological, climate, demographic, political and social change will alter the type of available jobs. In some sectors, demand will grow and new jobs will be created. Consumer trends will also change the type of available jobs and create new ones to meet evolving trends.

Over the last twelve months, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and threats to peace in Europe have seen promises in the UK to significantly increase defence spending. This would be likely to result in more jobs in that industry. Potentially exciting advances in the treatment of malaria and cancer suggests that life sciences, including immunology and pharmacology, will create many more jobs in the years. An ageing population will inevitably mean more jobs in the medical and care sectors. As the urgency to address climate change becomes ever clearer, more jobs are expected in the Green Revolution, whether in generating clean energy or developing alternatives to fossil-fuel consuming transport and other sectors.

However, automation accelerated by skills shortages will alter some tasks fundamentally or replace certain jobs altogether.

Where?

Many organisations are continuing to experience fundamental changes due to the geographical fragmentation of the workforce.

Of all the changes to the world of work driven by Covid, working from home is probably the most significant, whether that be fully remote working or agile/hybrid working where time is split between home and the office. Remote/home/hybrid working is now mainstream (in job roles where that is possible).

While globalisation in manufacturing is still in reverse, post-pandemic the globalisation of knowledge jobs is emerging, driven by skills shortages, technological advancements and evolving social trends. Within countries, memories of Covid restrictions are still a catalyst for movement from big cities and smaller towns to rural locations. The skills shortage continues to put pressure on employers, with many expanding their recruitment horizons geographically, both nationally and internationally, over the last 12 months – often through fully remote or hybrid working arrangements.

Energy price rises and even the possibility of energy are also affecting, and will continue to affect, decisions about where work is sited. Countries less reliant on gas supplies may become more attractive locations (for example, France obtains approximately 70% of its energy from nuclear; Norway with two thirds from hydro energy; and Iceland with hydro energy and geothermal energy accounting for nearly 100% of its energy).

From where?

With expected increases in wealth and productivity failing to materialise and the economic outlook now looking much gloomier than a year ago, the anticipated generation of new jobs from economic growth is fading, although employment levels remain high. While the public sector could have had a role in creating new jobs, in the UK at least, it seems that, in the short term, forthcoming cuts to public spending may well result in a contracting public sector.

When?

Driven primarily by advances in technology and shifting social trends, greater flexibility as to when work is done will continue to be a prominent feature of the world of work in the years ahead. Employers will need to adapt to geographically fragmented workforces operating across time zones.

How?

It remains the case that technological developments promise to have a profound impact on how tasks are performed. Technology is also fundamentally changing the essence of how we work through communication and collaboration tools and promises to evolve further with virtual and augmented reality and the metaverse. 

The need to address the plethora of working arrangements which have emerged in recent years is increasingly pressing. Nonetheless, reform will need to preserve flexibility for both individual and “employer” while ensuring that workers are not exploited and much-needed tax and social security revenues are not lost.

How much?

Debate continues as to whether the drivers of change will result in a net increase or decrease in jobs. The skills shortage, which has become increasingly pronounced over the last year throughout the world, has reinforced the view that finding enough people to do the available jobs will be a critical and long-term issue. However, pessimists continue to point to technological advances replacing human work in the long-term and, in the shorter-term, economic consequences of extended periods of low growth and recessions fuelling a rise in unemployment.

Who (and with whom)?

Workforces continue to become more diverse, with senior management better reflecting society at large. Alongside this trend, workforces continue to become more internationally and geographically fragmented.

Another emerging question is the "with whom" we work. This is different from the "who" of work which focusses on the person doing the work in an organisation. The “with whom” of work is not just the act of working with/collaborating with someone, but how work is undertaken alongside non-human colleagues (with increasing focus on human to technology interaction).

Why?

As employers continue to grapple with the skills shortage, addressing the questions of why people work, why they do a particular job and why they work for a particular organisation is becoming increasingly critical for businesses. While many factors other than maximum financial reward can influence an individual’s choices, for many the cost of living crisis will mean that making ends meet brings about a renewed focus on pay.